Jamaica‘s coffee industry could benefit from recent developments in respect of international price for the commodity.
Fears of persistent drought in Brazil sent a jolt through coffee commodity markets on Monday, when the price soared about 9%, contributing to a doubling over the last year. Weather forecasters see little relief this month.View the original article here
Jamaica‘s coffee industry could benefit from recent developments in respect of international price for the commodity.
Fears of persistent drought in Brazil sent a jolt through coffee commodity markets on Monday, when the price soared about 9%, contributing to a doubling over the last year. Weather forecasters see little relief this month.View the original article here
Ernie Seon
CASTRIES, St. Lucia, Monday September 15, 2014, CMC – The Secretary General of the Barbados-based Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), Hugh Riley, says while the Caribbean is forecasting another increase in arrivals for 2014, it is equally vital that it continues to increase its share of the global tourism market.
Speaking to the Caribbean Media Corporation (CMC) ahead of the September 17-19 State of the Industry conference (SOCIT) in the United States Virgin Islands, Riley said the CTO was heartened at the fact that arrivals to the region continue to grow and the prognosis for the industry remains good.
“In the Caribbean, arrivals continue to grow and thankfully we are now seeing the relationship between actual arrivals and revenue from those arrivals beginning to climb once again.
“So we see incomes starting to increase, so that earnings to spend is going up. So the prognosis is good from that point of view,” he noted.
However the Secretary General cautioned that it was vital that the Caribbean focuses on staying “ahead of the curve”, and on how the rest of the world is performing.
“For while we want our numbers to continue to increase with the Caribbean crossing the 25 million mark at the end of last year, and we are forecasting that we will again see an increase on that by the end of 2014, certainly if you look at the increase so far this year, there is every reason to believe that, all things being equal we will see another increase in arrival by the end of 2014,” he said.
But Riley asserts that this was not the only metric, noting that the Caribbean needed to ensure it was gaining market share and that while the rest of the world was getting involved in the tourism business, this region was increase its share of the pie.
“So while the prognosis is good, there is an absolute need for us to come to places where there is information on what’s happening around the world, places where we can consider solutions to our problems and where information is available about our best practices and inspire creative thought.
“We must be able to leave the conference feeling charged up to go out and do something different, go out and change something for the better in the business that we belong,” he noted.
Caribbean and global tourism stakeholders gather in St. Thomas to discuss and devise strategies to position Caribbean tourism for major change.
SOTIC is being organised in collaboration with the USVI’s department of tourism.
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View the original article here
FLORIDA, United States, Friday July 25, 2014 – The planet appears to be turning up the jets, setting a global heat record last month hot on the heels of breaking the same record in May.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the average global temperature in June was 61.2 degrees, which is 1.3 degrees higher than the 20th century average, and beat the record set in 2010 by one-twentieth of a degree.
Although one-twentieth of a degree might not sound impressive, “it’s like winning a horse race by several lengths” when it comes to temperature records, according to NOAA climate monitoring chief Derek Arndt.
Arndt went on to reveal that the world’s oceans not only broke a monthly heat record at 62.7 degrees, but it was the hottest the oceans have been on record in any month.
“We are living in the steroid era of the climate system,” he commented.
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The climatologist explained that both the May and June records were driven by unusually hot oceans, especially the Pacific and Indian oceans.
Although the United States had only its 33rd hottest June, heat records were broken in June on every continent but Antarctica. Particularly high temperatures were recorded in New Zealand, northern South America, Greenland, central Africa and southern Asia.
According to NOAA, the first six months of this year were the third warmest first six months on record, trailing 2010 and 1998.
June was the 352nd hotter-than-average month in a row as determined by global temperature records dating back to 1880.
All 12 of the world’s monthly heat records have been set since 1997, more than half of them in the last decade.
All of the global monthly records for low temperatures were set prior to 1917.
View the original article here
Shyam Saran
NEW DELHI, India, Friday July 25, 2014, IPS - The sixth BRICS Summit which has just ended in Brazil marks the transition of a grouping based hitherto on shared concerns to one based on shared interests.Since the inception of BRICS (bringing together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in 2009, it has been seen as a mainly flag waving exercise by a group of influential emerging economies, with little in terms of convergent interest other than signalling their strong dissatisfaction over persistent Western dominance of the world economic, financial as well as security order, but unable to fashion credible alternative governance structures themselves.
BRICS leaders have kept the door open for other stakeholders, but will retain at least a 55 percent equity share.
However, with the Fortaleza Summit finally announcing the much awaited establishment of the New Development Bank (NDB) with a 50 billion dollar subscribed capital and a Contingency Reserve Arrangement (CRA) of 100 billion dollars, the monopoly status and role of the Bretton Woods institutions – the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – stand broken.
True, it may take the NDB and the CRA considerable time and experience to evolve into credible international financial institutions but that clearly is the intent.
BRICS leaders have kept the door open for other stakeholders, but will retain at least a 55 percent equity share. They have also been careful to declare that these new institutions will supplement the activities of the World Bank and the IMF, and this has also been the initial response from the latter.
Nevertheless, the emergence of an alternative source of financing with norms different from those followed by the established institutions will alter the global financial landscape irreversibly.
The setting up of the BRICS institutions owed a great deal to the energy and push displayed by China
.It may be noted for the future that the one component of the global financial infrastructure where Western companies still remain supreme is the insurance and reinsurance sector. Global trade flows, in particular energy flows are almost invariably insured by a handful of Western companies which also determine risk factors and premiums.
In Brazil, the BRICS countries have given notice that they will examine the prospect of pooling their capacities in this sector. A more competitive situation in this sector can only be a positive development for developing countries.
The BRICS initiatives were born out of mounting frustration among emerging countries that even a modest restructuring of the governing structures of the Bretton Woods institutions, to reflect their growing economic profile, was being resisted. The commitment made in 2010 at the G20 to enlarge their stake in the IMF remains unfulfilled while the restructuring of the World Bank is yet to be taken up.
The longer the delay in such restructuring, the more rapid the consolidation of the new BRICS institutions is likely to be. It is this factor which played a role in helping resolve some of the differences among the BRICS countries over the structure and governance of these proposed institutions.
The setting up of the BRICS institutions owed a great deal to the energy and push displayed by China. It is doubtful that the proposals would have been actualised had China not put its full weight behind them and showed a readiness to accommodate other member countries, in particular India. Russia became more enthusiastic after being drummed out of the G8 and subjected to Western sanctions.
Chinese activism on this score must be seen in the context of other parallel developments in which China has also been the prime mover and sometimes the initiator. These are:
1. The proposal for setting up an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to fund infrastructure and connectivity projects in Asia, in particular, those which would help revive the maritime and land “Silk Routes” linking China with both its eastern and western flanks. The parallel with the NDB is hard to miss.
2. The consolidation of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM) and the associated Asian Multilateral Research Organisation (AMRO) among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) + 3 (China, Japan and the Republic of Korea). The CMIM is now a 240 billion dollar financing facility to help member countries deal with balance of payments difficulties. This is similar to the 100 billion dollar CRA set up by BRICS.
AMRO has evolved into a mechanism for macro-economic surveillance of member countries and provides a benchmark for their economic health and performance. This would enable sound lending policies and may very well be linked in future to the AIIB. The CMIM and the AMRO thus provide building blocks which could serve as the template for the NDB, the CRA and the AIIB.
3. In addition to the CMIM and the AMRO, there are ongoing initiatives within ASEAN + 3 to develop a truly Asian Bond Market which could mobilise regional savings into regional investments through local currency bonds. To support this initiative, a regional Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility has been established. A Regional Settlement Intermediary is proposed to facilitate cross-border multi-currency transfers.
These developments are taking place just when there is a rapidly growing Chinese yuan-denominated bond market, the so-called dim-sum bonds, which have become an important source of corporate financing. This reduces the dependence on euro and U.S. dollar-denominated bonds. The NDB could tap into this market to build up its own finances.
It is important to keep in mind this broader picture in assessing the significance of the decisions taken at the Fortaleza Summit. In systematically pursuing a number of parallel initiatives, China is attempting to create an alternative financial infrastructure which would have it in the lead role. The dilemma for other emerging countries is that there appear to be no credible alternatives, especially since the Western countries are unwilling to cede any enhanced role to them.
The Fortaleza Summit marks the beginning of the end of the post-Second World War Western dominance of the global economic and financial order. The existing institutions will now have to share space with the new entrants and may be compelled to adjust their norms to compete with the latter.
The prime mover behind the establishment of a rival network of financial institutions is China, whose global profile and influence is likely to increase as the various building blocks it has put in place come together to shape a new global financial architecture. This is still in the future but the trend is unmistakable.
View the original article here
Shyam Saran
NEW DELHI, India, Friday July 25, 2014, IPS - The sixth BRICS Summit which has just ended in Brazil marks the transition of a grouping based hitherto on shared concerns to one based on shared interests.Since the inception of BRICS (bringing together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in 2009, it has been seen as a mainly flag waving exercise by a group of influential emerging economies, with little in terms of convergent interest other than signalling their strong dissatisfaction over persistent Western dominance of the world economic, financial as well as security order, but unable to fashion credible alternative governance structures themselves.
BRICS leaders have kept the door open for other stakeholders, but will retain at least a 55 percent equity share.
However, with the Fortaleza Summit finally announcing the much awaited establishment of the New Development Bank (NDB) with a 50 billion dollar subscribed capital and a Contingency Reserve Arrangement (CRA) of 100 billion dollars, the monopoly status and role of the Bretton Woods institutions – the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – stand broken.
True, it may take the NDB and the CRA considerable time and experience to evolve into credible international financial institutions but that clearly is the intent.
BRICS leaders have kept the door open for other stakeholders, but will retain at least a 55 percent equity share. They have also been careful to declare that these new institutions will supplement the activities of the World Bank and the IMF, and this has also been the initial response from the latter.
Nevertheless, the emergence of an alternative source of financing with norms different from those followed by the established institutions will alter the global financial landscape irreversibly.
The setting up of the BRICS institutions owed a great deal to the energy and push displayed by China
.It may be noted for the future that the one component of the global financial infrastructure where Western companies still remain supreme is the insurance and reinsurance sector. Global trade flows, in particular energy flows are almost invariably insured by a handful of Western companies which also determine risk factors and premiums.
In Brazil, the BRICS countries have given notice that they will examine the prospect of pooling their capacities in this sector. A more competitive situation in this sector can only be a positive development for developing countries.
The BRICS initiatives were born out of mounting frustration among emerging countries that even a modest restructuring of the governing structures of the Bretton Woods institutions, to reflect their growing economic profile, was being resisted. The commitment made in 2010 at the G20 to enlarge their stake in the IMF remains unfulfilled while the restructuring of the World Bank is yet to be taken up.
The longer the delay in such restructuring, the more rapid the consolidation of the new BRICS institutions is likely to be. It is this factor which played a role in helping resolve some of the differences among the BRICS countries over the structure and governance of these proposed institutions.
The setting up of the BRICS institutions owed a great deal to the energy and push displayed by China. It is doubtful that the proposals would have been actualised had China not put its full weight behind them and showed a readiness to accommodate other member countries, in particular India. Russia became more enthusiastic after being drummed out of the G8 and subjected to Western sanctions.
Chinese activism on this score must be seen in the context of other parallel developments in which China has also been the prime mover and sometimes the initiator. These are:
1. The proposal for setting up an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to fund infrastructure and connectivity projects in Asia, in particular, those which would help revive the maritime and land “Silk Routes” linking China with both its eastern and western flanks. The parallel with the NDB is hard to miss.
2. The consolidation of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM) and the associated Asian Multilateral Research Organisation (AMRO) among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) + 3 (China, Japan and the Republic of Korea). The CMIM is now a 240 billion dollar financing facility to help member countries deal with balance of payments difficulties. This is similar to the 100 billion dollar CRA set up by BRICS.
AMRO has evolved into a mechanism for macro-economic surveillance of member countries and provides a benchmark for their economic health and performance. This would enable sound lending policies and may very well be linked in future to the AIIB. The CMIM and the AMRO thus provide building blocks which could serve as the template for the NDB, the CRA and the AIIB.
3. In addition to the CMIM and the AMRO, there are ongoing initiatives within ASEAN + 3 to develop a truly Asian Bond Market which could mobilise regional savings into regional investments through local currency bonds. To support this initiative, a regional Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility has been established. A Regional Settlement Intermediary is proposed to facilitate cross-border multi-currency transfers.
These developments are taking place just when there is a rapidly growing Chinese yuan-denominated bond market, the so-called dim-sum bonds, which have become an important source of corporate financing. This reduces the dependence on euro and U.S. dollar-denominated bonds. The NDB could tap into this market to build up its own finances.
It is important to keep in mind this broader picture in assessing the significance of the decisions taken at the Fortaleza Summit. In systematically pursuing a number of parallel initiatives, China is attempting to create an alternative financial infrastructure which would have it in the lead role. The dilemma for other emerging countries is that there appear to be no credible alternatives, especially since the Western countries are unwilling to cede any enhanced role to them.
The Fortaleza Summit marks the beginning of the end of the post-Second World War Western dominance of the global economic and financial order. The existing institutions will now have to share space with the new entrants and may be compelled to adjust their norms to compete with the latter.
The prime mover behind the establishment of a rival network of financial institutions is China, whose global profile and influence is likely to increase as the various building blocks it has put in place come together to shape a new global financial architecture. This is still in the future but the trend is unmistakable.
View the original article here
MELBOURNE, Australia, Wednesday July 23, 2014, CMC – The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) recently announced that over US$500 million will be allocated for new efforts to achieve an aids-free generation in the Caribbean and other countries around the World.
The new programmes will support implementation of the blueprint for the US President Barak Obama’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), USAID said.
Announced at the 20th International AIDS Conference (AIDS 2014) here, USAID said the investments illustrate how it is supporting the next phase of PEPFAR, and the global HIV and AIDS response.
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“With this substantial investment, USAID and PEPFAR are better able to sustain a lasting impact in the global fight against HIV and AIDS,” said USAID Assistant Administrator for Global Health Ariel Pablos-Méndez.
“By strengthening high impact interventions, engaging key populations, and supporting the capacity of local partners and host country governments, we know that it is possible to accelerate the end of this epidemic and realize the promise of an AIDS-free generation,” he added.
USAID said the awards include US$250 million that will be implemented over five years for strengthening the impact interventions for an AIDS-Free Generation (AIDSFree).
It said the award also comprises USAID’s Linkages Across the Continuum of HIV Services for Key Populations Affected by HIV (LINKAGES), a US$73 million award that will also be implemented over five years.
View the original article here
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29 July 2013 Last updated at 19:46 ET By Laurence Knight Business reporter, BBC News 
And, given the monster that China has grown into, its planned “rebalancing” is not something the rest of us can afford to ignore.
In fact, the next few years promise to be quite rocky.
Lumbering giantFirst the back story: China has been following the Asian development strategy pioneered by Japan from the 50s to the 80s, and then pursued by the “Tiger” economies of Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.
Continue reading the main story Country People Growth rate Income per person** Gross National Income per capita at purchasing power parity, as of 2012
Unfortunately for China, its population is almost seven times those of Japan and the Tigers combined. So its impact on the rest of the world has been far bigger, and its room for manoeuvre more limited.The strategy involves the government – aided by a coterie of mammoth industrial giants – funnelling a huge chunk of the country’s income into investment.
“Investment” here means anything which drives up the country’s productive capacity – educating the population, building up manufacturing and heavy industry, and above all constructing new cities, roads, railways, power plants, ports, and so on.
The strategy also typically involves a heavy reliance on exports, which help the country raise the foreign currency it needs to import raw materials and valuable foreign technology.
Dividing up the cakeBut gearing the economy towards investment and exports has a flipside – it means the economy caters far less well for the immediate needs of its own population.
In order to pull off an average 10% growth rate over the last three decades, China’s government has had to tightly ration the slice of the economic cake that goes on goods and services for its own population.
As Michael Pettis, economics professor at Beijing University, points out, Beijing’s priorities can be gleaned from its policies:
a cheap currency, which keeps exporters competitive, but makes imported consumer goods more expensivelow interest rates, which are great for borrowers (manufacturers, state-owned industries and property developers), not so great for savers (ordinary Chinese)wage rises that have failed to keep up with the value of what the average Chinese worker produces, made possible by an abundant supply of cheap peasant workers migrating to the citiesthe right of local governments to expropriate farmers of their land, for profitable redevelopmenta residence registration system that deprives migrants of welfare services in the cities where they work
The newly-appointed President Xi Jinping has a tough job on his hands All these things subsidise the state and its industrial development strategy at the expense of Chinese citizens.
Broken enginesAnd now comes the “rebalancing”.
The above policies are all set to be reversed, so that consumer spending by the country’s growing middle class can finally take over as the main engine of growth.
The leadership has been touting rebalancing for several years, but it is only with the recent enthronement of President Xi Jinping that Beijing finally seems to be getting to grips with the task.
President Xi has little choice. Exports and investment – the old engines of growth – are broken.
The 2008 financial crisis made clear that the US and Europe could no longer afford to borrow from China in order to buy Chinese-made goods.
Such is China’s enormity, it has saturated its export markets.
Beijing responded to the crisis by stepping up investment.
But that approach has also reached its limits – the credit-fuelled construction boom since 2009 threatens to lumber China with far too much housing and infrastructure for its level of development, along with a load of unrepayable debts.
Spend, spend, spendIf China must now rebalance, what does it mean for the rest of us?
There is a long-term and a short-term answer.
The long-term is potentially rosy.
How the middle class revolution is changing the worldChina is already experiencing a consumer boom, with wages and retail sales growing at double-digit rates.
In part this is because, with 50% of the population now urbanised, the demand for cheap industrial labour appears to be outstripping the ready supply of new migrant workers, pushing up wages.
If the consumer boom can be sustained – and property speculators certainly hope so – then China will eventually overtake the US and EU to become the world’s biggest export market.
British businesses are already seeing the benefit.
The education and publishing group Pearson is at the forefront of selling English language teaching to middle class urbanites.
Meanwhile, Burberry and other luxury brands have seen their profits goosed by those same wealthy Chinese spendthrifts – at least until Beijing recently began clamping down on conspicuous spending by apparatchiks.
China’s rebalancing may also herald the beginning of the reversal in global income inequality, which has risen steadily since the 1980s in part because Western workers have had to compete with cheaper workers in China and elsewhere joining the global economy.
It’s not all good news – growing demand for meat by China’s wealthy population is likely to push global food prices ever higher, at least until genetic engineering starts delivering on its promise to multiply crop yields.
Ugly mathsBut the big point is that China’s rebalancing is an unavoidable and ultimately healthy development.
The world economy could really do with somebody spending more money right now, instead of engaging in spending cuts. And Chinese consumers may eventually fill that void.
“Eventually” – there’s the rub.
Household consumption comprises a mere third of spending in the Chinese economy, a shockingly low figure. In most countries, it is 50%-70%.
Starting from such a low base, it makes the maths of rebalancing look quite ugly in the short-term.
Source: World Bank; Spending components as a percentage of GDP in 2011
Let us assume that China’s rate of investment spending – currently a staggering 48% of economic output – stagnates, while consumer spending grows at 10%-15% each year.
That would equate to sharply slower Chinese growth for the next few years – perhaps 5%-7%.
But even this could prove optimistic.
Why should investment spending not shrink, if China has already over-invested in too many apartments, steel mills and train lines?
What if, in the face of rising wages, higher interest payments and a stronger currency, a string of over-indebted property developers, industrial firms and manufacturers goes bust?
Why should Chinese citizens continue to increase their spending so quickly if many find themselves laid off from the construction, heavy industry and export sectors that need to downsize in a rebalanced economy?
Continue reading the main story And what if the value of the apartments that they have invested their life savings in starts to fall instead of rise?Under-miningEven if things run smoothly, the prospect of China winding down its building boom has huge implications for the rest of the world.
Start with mining. China’s construction sector eats up vast amounts of base metals, and has until recently driven up global commodities prices to unprecedented levels.
Rio Tinto – one of the world’s biggest miners – estimates that in 2012 China consumed two-thirds of the world’s tradable iron ore, 45% of its aluminium and 42% of its copper.
That was up from 12%-13% in 2000.
If China starts to fall back towards its long-term natural share of the market, then that means a lot of iron ore, aluminium and copper with nowhere to go.
Prices of the relevant commodities have been falling. Copper, for example, is down by a fifth since February.
If rebalancing continues, it will make life unpleasant for the world’s mining firms – many of which feature highly in the London Stock Exchange’s FTSE 100.
It will also be bad news for the countries who have done so well in recent years from exporting those commodities – Brazil, Chile, much of Africa, Russia, Kazakhstan, Canada and Australia.
Global glutBut it’s not just mining.
Here are some of the results you get if you Google “China glut”:
John Sudworth reports on China’s economic slowdownWhat all these have in common is that China’s overinvestment has outgrown not only its own economy, but also the world economy.
China stayed afloat after 2008 by busying itself building ever more productive capacity, but to whom will it ultimately sell the resulting production?
The overcapacity is bad for profits, jobs and trade relations in the global industries affected.
That will hurt countries like Japan and Germany which are major players in these industries, though it may be more welcome for a service-oriented economy like the UK.
For example, the cost of the imported raw materials and equipment needed to build a new London airport or new affordable housing may fall substantially.
DeflatingHowever the glut emanating from China could pose a more fundamental challenge for the global economy.
China’s construction boom since 2009 has been heavy on imports of raw materials, equipment and so on, and almost eliminated its trade surplus – which had stood at 10% of economic output in 2007.
Minerals and fuels accounted for about a third of China’s imports in 2011, more than double its share of imports in 2003, according to World Trade Organization data.
Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus in manufactured goods has continued to widen, but this has been more than offset by its growing imports of raw materials.
If the construction boom is over, those imports could fall sharply, resulting in a temporary resurgence of China’s controversial surpluses.
Continue reading the main story What’s more, Beijing may be sorely tempted to help its export sector, so that it can re-employ laid-off construction workers (not to mention unemployed graduates).The government has announced new subsidies for exporters – as well as a new round of railway construction – as part of its latest plan to prop up the flagging economy.
Another option might be to let the yuan weaken.
The Chinese currency has recently halted its strengthening as the sharpness of China’s slowdown has become apparent and the flow of speculative money into the country has seemingly dried up.
But such moves would only worsen China’s trade surpluses.
That would not be helpful at a time when Europe, the US and Japan are also all looking to exports to help their economies recover. If everyone wants to export, who is going to do the importing?
Any renewal of large trade surpluses would have the same effect on global demand as a slow puncture on a tyre.
China’s economy comprises 11% of the world’s GDP, so – at the extreme – a return to 10% surpluses would represent a drag of roughly 1% on spending in the rest of the world.
Crudely put, less Chinese spending on iron ore and equipment means less spending by Australian mining firms on London’s financial services, and less spending by German factory workers on British consumer goods.
To make matters worse, if Beijing has to contend with large numbers of unemployed migrant workers, the leadership – or factions within it – may be tempted to drum up xenophobia as a way of shoring up public support.
For example, as the economy first began to wobble last year, China happily reopened an old dispute with its former coloniser Japan over the Shenkaku / Diaoyu islands, before cooling matters down when anger on the street seemed to be getting out of hand.
In short, the risk is that we could be headed for more years of anaemic global demand, as well as increasingly nasty trade relations.
View the original article here
