Jamaica"s prospects shine brighter, says JP Morgan

BY KEITH COLLISTER

Friday, October 10, 2014    

IN its October Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy dated last Friday, on the eve of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) annual global summit in Washington, leading US investment bank JP Morgan stated that Jamaica‘s “Prospects shine brighter”.

The bank’s reasons include the lifting of Jamaica‘s outlook to positive from stable by rating agency Standard and Poor’s, better tourism numbers from Europe and Canada, and healthy gains

in remittances.

The rating improvement, JP Morgan said, reflects improved external liquidity, a return to positive GDP growth, and success in meeting the fiscal targets, with “the elevated deficit being virtually eliminated”.

JP Morgan noted the trade deficit narrowed by 6.5 per cent to US$1.78 billion in January to May from US$1.91 billion a year earlier. Despite a 13.9 per cent plunge in exports to US$616 million, this was more than offset by an 8.5 per cent decline in imports to US$2.4 billion.

The investment bank said it expects the trade deficit to fall to US$4.4 billion for the full year 2014 compared to US$4.66 billion in 2013.

It also noted that stopover tourist arrivals rose 2.4 per cent to 1.3 million in January to July from 1.27 million a year earlier, primarily due to surges in visitors from Europe and Canada, much better than last year when the numbers had only “inched up”, as JP Morgan put it, by 1.1 per cent to 2.01 million.

Now, the bank has forecast stopover arrivals to climb 2.7 per cent to 2.06 million in calendar year 2014.

Remittances climbed 3.8 per cent to US $887 million in January to May from US$854 million one year earlier, compared with a 1.1 per cent rise to US$2.07 billion in 2013. The bank now expects remittances to grow four per cent in 2014 to US$2.15 billion, or roughly 15 per cent of GDP, driven by the key US source market.

Noting the surge in net international reserves in July to US$2.18 billion following the Eurobond issue, despite upcoming debt repayments such as the Eurobond due in October, JP Morgan still forecast net international reserves to improve by US$452 million to US$1.5 billion by the end of 2014, from US$1.05 billion in 2013.

In short, JP Morgan’s more positive outlook reflects the improvement in international confidence in Jamaica due to the bank’s recognition of our improved US dollar flows, including a reduction in the trade deficit, better performance in tourism, and more significant growth in remittances.

While not mentioned in its note, there has also been an apparent recovery in foreign direct investment from recent lows, particularly in tourism, and international players would also undoubtedly have taken note of the recent stability of the Jamaican dollar.

Indeed, at the latest Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC) press briefing, co -chair Richard Byles suggested that tourism performance in the traditionally weak September appeared robust, adding that, very unusually, the exchange rate had appreciated slightly in a month when it is normally seasonally weak.

Answering his own question as to why this was the case, Byles suggested that the exchange rate no longer looked like a “one-way bet”, and he believed a lot of people had recently got out of US dollars, deflating what had become an exchange rate “bubble”, as people were now confident that the Bank of Jamaica “has the ability to defend the [Jamaican] dollar”.

However, he cautioned that the improvement in local sentiment was “not so

much” about the overall

IMF programme, where confidence remained very spotty.

The improvement in remittance flows was also seen in the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce (JCC) Business and Consumer confidence indices released Wednesday, where despite a three-point reduction in consumer confidence, largely on the back of distress at the reduction in expected job prospects and less favourable expected changes in income, consumers counterintuitively reported a better quality of life, according to JCC pollster Don Anderson.

Some of this appears to reflect an improvement in the size and frequency of remittances, which continues to “cushion” consumers. This view is supported by the record numbers of Jamaicans reporting that they spend all their remittances, especially on utility costs, according to the JCC report.

The rise in remittances for Jamaica projected by JP Morgan is in line with regional and global trends, as a recently released World Bank report says remittances to the region are expected to reach US$64 billion, an increase of five per cent this year, compared to one per cent last year, with a further rise to US$67 billion in 2015.

The JCC report also reported a clear divergence between confidence in the tourist areas, which appeared to be improving, and Kingston, which was declining, no doubt reflecting the growth of the tourist industry.

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Jamaica"s prospects shine brighter, says JP Morgan

Rayon gets it "write" with Rise and Shine

By Cecelia Campbell-Livingston Observer staff reporter livingstonc@jamaicaobserver.com

For the first time since 1966, there will be no Festival or Popular Song Contest. Instead, the Jamaica Cultural Development Commission, producers of the event, launched a campaign for fans to vote online for their favourite song. Today, the Jamaica Observer publishes the fifth in a six-part series on past competitions.ALTHOUGH singer Roy Rayon won the Festival or Popular Song Contest three previous times, he was still a hungry man when he entered in 2008.“It was always my dream to win the competition with my own lyrics,” he told Splash.That dream came true when he penned Rise and Shine, the winning song that year.“In penning the lyrics I was thinking grand gala, festival celebrations, everyone having a wonderful time,” Rayon explained. “The Festival song is supposed to be the pulse of Independence.”Rayon had previously won the annual contest with Love Fever (1985), Give Thanks And Praises (1987) and Come Rock in 1991.A self-described product of the Jamaica Cultural Development Commission (organisers of Independence events), he won Best Performer in the Festival competition on five occasions.Rayon says he knew there was something special in store for him in 2008.“When I was called up for Best Performer I remember someone saying, ‘Let me hold these (other prizes) for you’. After that I got the feeling that something else was going to happen,” he recalled.Even though he was a multiple winner, Rayon describes success with Rise and Shine as a “feel good moment.”He does not rule out entering the competition again, but expressed the need for more professionals to be involved.“Too many amateurs in the competition. You don’t have the strongest field of performers,” he said.

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Rayon gets it "write" with Rise and Shine

"Christians, be not afraid, be not angry, just let your light shine"

OCHO RIOS, St Ann — The Jamaican minister who heads the powerful Baptist World Alliance (BWA) has advised Christians not to be angry or afraid if others do not share their beliefs.

Instead, Reverend Dr Neville Callam, general secretary and chief executive officer of the United Nations-recognised BWA, urged Christians to “show the truth through their lifestyles”.“We do not need to be angry; we do not need to be afraid, because the gospel we have is so powerful, and if Christians only let the light of Christ shine, many people who are disaffected will come to faith,” he said.Callam’s reassurance comes at a time when Jamaican Christians have been embroiled in several controversial issues, such as the gay campaign for the repeal of the Buggery Act and calls for the abolition of abortion by pro-lifers.Dr Callam and the BWA president, Rev Dr John Upton, were in Jamaica for its July 1-6, 2013 conference of the Alliance which was held this year at the Sunset Jamaica Grande Resort in this tourist resort town. The BWA, which meets yearly in different countries, also hosted its five-yearly theological conference in the island from June 28 to 30.Dr Callam, who is the first Jamaican and Caribbean national to hold a top position in that major international church organisation, suggested that each individual was created by God with a right to their own beliefs.In an interview the the Jamaica Observer, he said that rather than be angry with people who think differently, Christians should “offer them the opportunity to see Christ through us”.“We respect the freedom of conscience and therefore we do not adopt a strategy of targeting people who are different from us in their beliefs and portray them to be less than human,” he stated. “By the way we live, by the way we conduct ourselves, by acts of love we engage in, we want to try to show them the face of Christ, which we believe will be enough to convince them of what it is that they lack and perhaps what it is that they are searching for, as they try to find meaning in life,” Dr Callam said.Dr Upton, in agreeing with Callam, said that the BWA was unapologetic about its convictions. However, at the same time it was respectful to all persons. “We want to express God’s love to all people…We are the fragrance of Christ,” he said.The BWA, which was established in 1905, will this year focus on the relationship between Christians and Muslim, which originated in the same part of the world — the Middle East — “to see how best Christians and Muslims can improve these relationships, looking at how do we learn to be good neighbours with one another while at the same time respecting our convictions”. The decision stems from an October 2007 open letter from leaders of Islam to the Christians.Where there are vast close existence of Baptist and Muslims, “there are efforts to engage in meaningful and respectful dialogue to assist relationships,” Dr Callam said.He said the group had also been in dialogue with other Christian communities in their bid to broaden the “oneness of Christ”. It had been using its considerable influence to lobby for the release of several Christians who were arrested in Islamic nations under false accusations.The group is also involved in world aid, assisting several nations, including Jamaica, who have been affected by disasters and in development projects.Dr Upton gave as an example the building of an orphanage in Haiti for children who lost their parents in the massive earthquake.Over 400 persons from 300 countries attended the conference for fellowship, praise and discussions.CALLAM… we do not need to be angryUPTON… we want to express God’s love to all

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"Christians, be not afraid, be not angry, just let your light shine"