Leading Barbados economists question Central Bank’s outlook

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, Thursday July 17, 2014, CMC - Two leading economists Wednesday said that contrary to the Central Bank’s prediction of growth in economy from this year, there’s no sign of expansion in the near future and upward movement may begin in three years.

The Central Bank on Tuesday released its second-quarter report for the year, predicting growth in 2014 of 0.3 per cent based on expected performances in the foreign exchange earning sectors. The bank also stated that the economy is expected to pick up by 1.2 per cent in 2015, and 2.5 per cent in 2016.

“We at least believe at best a flat performance, but the realistic scenario would be that we expect a drop off at the end of the year,” said Jeremy Stephen, President of the Barbados Economic Society (BES).

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“I stick by the prediction that growth would be at least three years off… around 2017 you would see significant recovery.”

Stephen, an economic consultant and part-time lecturer at the University of the West Indies, said his disagreement with the Central Bank’s forecast is based on the quarterly report pointing to government’s continued heavy borrowing from the commercial banking sector.

“So the challenges we expect would remain going forward, particularly in arresting the fiscal deficit, using fiscal consolidation as a major strategy,” he said.

The Central Bank had stated that as of March this year, fiscal adjustment measures started last August, appeared to be restoring a balance of inflows and outflows of foreign exchange.

Those adjustments are part of an 18-month programme.

But Stephen cautioned, “We’re still in the middle of the 18-month adjustment programme…so we still have six months to go to see whether the fiscal consolidation would have been successful, but with where we are going right now it is very hard to say that it’s been significantly successful, I would say that at best it has been tepid”.

Ryan Straughn, immediate BES past president said, “I don’t really see where this growth is going to come from”.

“The government spent more in the period of September 2013 to March this year, so one would have to see some more significant cuts coming on stream this year if they are to meet any of the targets. They are looking to raise an additional $300 million (One BDS dollar = 50 US cents) in revenue this year, and I find that hard to achieve and obtain that growth which is being projected to the end of the year as well.”

He said more government fiscal adjustment measures are going to be necessary, “because the deficit was meant to be around eight per cent the end of March, 2014, but it turned out to be nearly 12 per cent.

“Therefore one would have to see a considerable adjustment, certainly between now and the end of March next year, if we are going to achieve any of the targets that would have been highlighted in the budget of last year.”

Although Barbados’ budget statement is presented in August, the financial year begins March 31 of the following year, hence the 2014-2015 fiscal period ends in March 2015.

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Leading Barbados economists question Central Bank’s outlook

Default on your credit card — banks will decide if they will lend you money again

Dear Claudienne

I had defaulted on two credit cards while I was in Jamaica.I am now living overseas and would like to know what my options are at this time and how unsecured loans are treated under the law in Jamaica.HRDear HRAccording to the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), loan application reviews and decisions are at the discretion of the companies offering such services. The companies offering such services would perform their own risk assessment and make a determination on applications.In regards to unsecured loans, the BOJ advised Tell Claudienne that provisions in the Banking Act relate to maximum transaction limits. The BOJ said:“These limits, which are expressed as a percentage of the commercial banks’ capital base, restrict the amounts that a commercial bank may lend on an unsecured basis to certain categories of customers. For example, unsecured loans are prohibited in respect of “connected persons” (as defined in the Act) and restricted to an amount equivalent to one year’s salary in the case of bank employees. [Refer Section 13(1)(d) of the Banking Act]In terms of unconnected people, maximum limits are in place in relation to credits to a single customer (5 per cent of capital base) and group of related customers (10 per cent of capital base). [Refer Section 13(1)(f) of the Banking Act] Banks would nonetheless establish their own internal limits based on their risk assessments.”We asked the BOJ if the regulations pertaining to credit bureaus were now in force.BOJ said that the Credit Reporting Act was passed in August 2010 and took effect in October 2010.BOJ said that The Credit Reporting Regulations which serve to operationalise the Act were approved and gazetted in January 2011 and are currently in force.BOJ said that to date, the Minister of Finance has issued two licences under the Credit Reporting Act. The licences have been issued to Creditinfo Jamaica Limited – (issued March 7, 2012) and to CRIF NM Credit Assure Limited — (issued April 10, 2012) .Good luck.Dear Claudienne,I have been trying to receive Provident Fund retirement benefits from the Ministry of Finance for the past five years without success.I worked for 12 years with the Jamaica Library Service from 1964 to 1976 during which time I contributed to the Provident Fund Scheme. In 1976 when I resigned to take up a position at Sam Sharpe Teachers’ College I was informed by an officer at the Accountant General’s Department that because I was continuing in the Government Service the employer’s contribution could not be given to me. I was refunded my contribution. I concluded that the officer expected that my service would be linked and I would therefore be compensated for those 12 years. On retirement from the Ministry of Education (Sam Sharpe) in 2006, I requested that my service be linked but was told that that was not possible. I therefore received pension based on the years I worked at Sam Sharpe. I subsequently requested to receive my Provident Fund Pension benefits for the period that I worked with the Jamaica Library Service, but despite several letters, visits and telephone calls to the Pensions Department of the Ministry of Finance, all I am being told is that they can’t find the Provident Fund File. On one occasion some years ago when I called, the officer actually had the file and was able to verify that I did not receive the employer’s contribution. I should point out that I have never received a written response to any of my letters.It is my view that it is the responsibility of the Ministry of Finance to locate the file or find alternative means of dealing with the matter, but no one seems to care.I am asking you to take up this matter for me.CDDear CDThe Pensions Department of the Ministry of Finance has advised us that the Provident Fund became defunct in 1988. At that time those persons who had contributed to the fund were advised that it was being wound up and a number of contributors applied for a refund and got back their money. Other people were made pensionable. You were apparently one of about ten people who were not aware of the fund’s closure and did not apply at that time for your period of work in the library service to be linked to your work at the teachers’ college.There now appears to be little hope of your getting a refund as the ministry said that there is no provision for this. They said that your case is being researched in the archives, but there is only a very slim chance that the records will be found after such a long time to verify your contributions to this fund. We will continue to check with them, however.Good luckHave a problem with a store, utility, a company: telephone 936-9436 or write to: Tell Claudienne c/o Sunday Finance, Jamaica Observer, 40-42 1/2 Beechwood Avenue, Kingston 5; or e-mail: edwardsc@jamaicaobserver.com. Please include a contact phone number.

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Default on your credit card — banks will decide if they will lend you money again