Petrojam checking accuracy of PSOJ study

BY KARENA BENNETT Business reporter bennettk@jamaicaobserver.com

Wednesday, December 24, 2014    

Petrojam Limited yesterday said it was checking the accuracy of an analysis presented by the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica (PSOJ) which concluded that the State-run oil refinery is passing on less than half of the reductions in global oil prices.

The analysis, which was conducted by the research department of the PSOJ from January to November this year, stated that the Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica (PCJ) closely aligned its price increases with that of global oil prices, but was not as responsive in passing on the decreases. Additionally, retailers have been following the same pattern of response to cost movements from PCJ.

The PSOJ is now calling for some transparency in PCJ’s fuel prices, amidst the refinery’s recent claim in an advisory entitled ‘Gas Prices Explained’ that its prices were “fair and transparent”.

“If you look at the statement we sent out, you will see that there are some discrepancies in the figures of the PSOJ and Petrojam,” Public Relations Officer Latoya Pennant told the Jamaica Observer.

“I’m not sure how the PSOJ came to the conclusion that we are only passing on 12 per cent of the reduction in oil prices from the US Gulf Coast (USGC) reference price, so we are going over our figures to see if we can get the same results,” she added.

In its report, Petrojam indicated that it had reduced gas prices by approximately 25 per cent at the retail level, over the six-month period ending December. The refinery added that its prices closely correlated with price movements in Miami, Florida, where the price of regular gasoline was reduced by 24 per cent and 19 per cent for premium gasoline over the same period.

However, the PSOJ report, which quoted the most widely used benchmark for crude oil in US, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), along with the USGC reference price, from which PCJ benchmarks its price, concluded that when the USGC reduced its oil prices by 30 per cent in June, the PCJ only reduced its prices by 12 per cent.

Yesterday, Pennant said that Petrojam had hoped to have a response provided to the public by the end of yesterday. However, there was no word from the company at press time.

The Petrojam oil refinery in Kingston.

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Petrojam checking accuracy of PSOJ study

Study surprise

GENEVA, Switzerland (AFP) — Dramatically expanding broadband access would boost the global economy and could do more good than investing in HIV prevention or clean drinking water, according to a study published Thursday.

Economists commissioned by think tank Copenhagen Consensus Centre calculated that tripling access to mobile broadband networks in developing countries by 2030 would boost economic growth by US$22 trillion.

“There’s a well-established increase in GDP growth if you have more broadband, and it doesn’t take very much of a higher growth rate to make a huge difference in people’s lives,” the head of the think tank, Bjorn Lomborg, told AFP.

Estimating that it will cost about US$1.3 trillion to go from 21 per cent coverage today to 60 per cent coverage by 2030, bringing some three billion more people online, the study found the investment could rake in US$17 worth of benefit for every dollar spent.

Tripling fixed broadband coverage worldwide from 10 to 30 per cent, or in the developing world from six to 20 per cent during the same timeframe, would meanwhile reap US$21 in benefits for each dollar spent, the study found.

The study is part of a broader project in which a network of more than 100 economists are analysing the costs and benefits of a range of proposed global targets under discussion.

Surprisingly, the analysis showed that from a purely economic perspective, hiking access to broadband was “phenomenally better than a lot of other proposals”, Lomborg said.

Some of the most obvious targets do fare better, with every dollar spent alleviating childhood malnutrition, for instance, expected to do US$45 worth of good, according to earlier studies.

But others do not stand up to the benefits of broadband expansion, with investments in clean water and sanitation seen bringing benefits of between US$3 and US$5 per dollar spent, Lomborg said.

Investing in HIV treatment would meanwhile only do US$2.50 worth of good for every dollar spent, while initiatives to preserve forests in protected land would cost more than the benefits created, he said.

Calculating the benefits of proposed development initiatives based purely on economic gain can appear cold, Lomborg acknowledged.

But with an almost eternal list of noble causes, he insisted on the importance of knowing the cost and benefits of projects when trying to choose which to invest in first.

Just because an initiative doesn’t top the list of dollars gained does not mean it shouldn’t be invested in for other reasons, he said.

Economists commissioned by think tank Copenhagen Consensus Centre calculated that tripling access to mobile broadband networks in developing countries by 2030 would boost economic growth by US$22 trillion.

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Study surprise

Soy could speed up spread of breast cancer – study

NEW YORK, United States, Wednesday September 10, 2014 – Experts have cautioned that eating soy, in the form of tofu or milk, could speed up the rate at which breast cancer cells spread in women already diagnosed with the disease.

The warning came after scientists at the Sloan Kettering Cancer Centre in New York studied 140 women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer.

Between seven and 30 days before the women had surgery to remove their tumours, half of them were given soy protein powder containing genistein, while the other half received a placebo.

The researchers compared tumour tissues from before and after the operation. In the women who had taken the soy supplement, changes were found in the expressions of certain genes that are known to promote cell growth.

These findings suggested that soy protein could potentially accelerate the progression of the disease.

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In the words of the study, which was published in the September 4 edition of the Journal of the National Cancer Institute: “These data raise concern that soy may exert a stimulating effect on breast cancer in a sub set of women.”

Participants in the study had recently had breast biopsies, were diagnosed with stage one or two breast cancer, and were scheduled to have a mastectomy or lumpectomy in two to three weeks.

According to co-author of the study Jacqueline Bromberg: “Although the genes were being expressed, it is not clear that this will translate into actual tumour growth. But the concern is that there may be the potential.

“Only 20 percent of those patients who took the soy had really high levels of the genistein metabolite.”

Dr Bromberg said the reasons behind the disparity are unclear, adding that there is no way to predict who would have this reaction after consuming soy.

She went on to explain that of the women with high genistein levels, a few of them experienced changes in a specified set of genes that are known to affect breast cancer cell growth, death, or some aspect of breast cancer pathology.

Women who consumed around 51.6 grams of soy, the equivalent of about four cups of soy milk a day, exhibited the changes.

It was thought likely that those who eat soy regularly could “reasonably consume that amount” daily, particularly vegetarians and those who do not eat dairy products.

The scientists cautioned that women living in Asian countries could be especially at risk, due to the high levels of soy and tofu in traditional diets.

The research did not address the question of whether soy would have any effect on women who have not already been diagnosed with breast cancer.

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Soy could speed up spread of breast cancer – study

Dramatic decline of Caribbean corals can be reversed – study

WASHINGTON D.C., United States, Friday July 4, 2014, CMC - A new study has found that the dramatic decline of Caribbean coral reefs can be reversed.

The study by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN), the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), has also found that Caribbean corals have declined by more than 50 percent since the 1970s.

But according to the authors, restoring parrotfish populations and improving other management strategies, such as protection from overfishing and excessive coastal pollution, could help the reefs recover and make them more resilient to future climate change impacts.

“The rate at which the Caribbean corals have been declining is truly alarming,” said Carl Gustaf Lundin, director of the Washington-based IUCN’s Global Marine and Polar Programme.

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“But this study brings some very encouraging news. The fate of Caribbean corals is not beyond our control, and there are some very concrete steps that we can take to help them recover.”

With only about one-sixth of the original coral cover left, the study finds that most Caribbean coral reefs may disappear in the next 20 years, primarily due to the loss of grazers in the region.

According to the IUCN, the world’s oldest and largest global environmental organization, the study, “Status and Trends of Caribbean Coral Reefs: 1970-2012,” is the most detailed and comprehensive study of its kind published to date.

It said the study is the result of the work of 90 experts over the course of three years.

IUCN said the study contains the analysis of more than 35,000 surveys conducted at 90 Caribbean locations since 1970, including studies of corals, seaweeds, grazing sea urchins and fish.

The report shows that while climate change has long been thought to be the main culprit in coral degradation, it poses a serious threat by making oceans more acidic and causing coral bleaching.

The report finds that the loss of parrotfish and sea urchin – the area’s two main grazers – has, in fact, been the key driver of coral decline in the region.

It says that an unidentified disease led to a mass mortality of the sea urchin in 1983, adding that extreme fishing throughout the 20th century has brought the parrotfish population to the brink of extinction in some regions.

“The loss of these species breaks the delicate balance of coral ecosystems and allows algae, on which they feed, to smother the reefs,” the report says, noting that reefs protected from overfishing, as well as other threats, such as excessive coastal pollution, tourism and coastal development, are more resilient to pressures from climate change.

“Even if we could somehow make climate change disappear tomorrow, these reefs would continue their decline,” warned Jeremy Jackson, lead author of the report and IUCN’s senior advisor on coral reefs.

“We must immediately address the grazing problem for the reefs to stand any chance of surviving future climate shifts,” he added.

The study also shows that some of the healthiest Caribbean coral reefs are those that harbour vigorous populations of grazing parrotfish.

These include the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico, Bermuda and Bonaire, “all of which have restricted or banned fishing practices that harm parrotfish, such as fish traps and spearfishing”.

The study is urging other countries to follow suit.

“Barbuda is about to ban all catches of parrotfish and grazing sea urchins, and set aside one-third of its coastal waters as marine reserves,” said Ayana Johnson of the Waitt Institute’s Blue Halo Initiative, which is collaborating with Barbuda in the development of its new management plan.

“This is the kind of aggressive management that needs to be replicated regionally if we are going to increase the resilience of Caribbean reefs,” she added.

The IUCN said that reefs where parrotfish are not protected have suffered tragic declines, including Jamaica, the entire Florida Reef Tract from Miami to Key West, and the US Virgin Islands.

The IUCN said the Caribbean is home to nine per cent of the world’s coral reefs, which are one of the most diverse ecosystems on the planet.

It said Caribbean reefs, spanning a total of 38 countries, are vital to the region’s economy, generating more than three billion US dollars annually from tourism and fisheries, and over a hundred times more in other goods and services, on which more than 43 million people depend.

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Dramatic decline of Caribbean corals can be reversed – study

Number of Caribbean children obese and overweight doubles in last decade – study

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, Wednesday July 2, 2014, CMC – A study done in four Caribbean countries has found that 30 per cent of children aged 11 to 13 were overweight or obese, a senior official of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has said.

Dr. Audrey Morris, the advisor on Food and Nutrition at PAHO, told a workshop to review and refine a draft policy document on Nutritious and Healthy Foods in Barbadian schools that the number of overweight and obese children in the region has more than doubled over the last decade due primarily to unhealthy diets and inadequate exercise.

Dr. Morris said the consequences of overweight and obesity in children were serious, including breathing difficulties, hypertension, early signs of cardiovascular disease, insulin resistance and psychological effects.

She noted the easy access to fatty and salty foods in school canteens and revealed that up to 80 per cent of the children in the Caribbean study admitted to drinking a carbonated soda every day. The countries in the study were not disclosed.

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The PAHO official said in addition to drinking carbonated soda daily, children were allowed to easily opt out of physical education classes at school, especially when preparing for examinations. In addition, the children spent many hours watching television and playing computer games at home.

Dr. Morris said countries like the United States had placed limits on sugar, fat and sodium in all foods and beverages sold on school compounds. In addition, Brazil has mandated that 30 per cent of the input in school meals must come from local agriculture, and Panama has banned fried foods and sodas from school premises.

She said what is needed in the Caribbean is a multi-faceted, multi-sectoral approach to reinforce the message of healthier eating and active living.

Senior Medical Officer of Health, here, Dr. Kenneth George, said that while Barbados was not included in the PAHO study, statistics show that the situation was very similar on the island.

According to him, the most recent survey conducted in 2012 and involving 1,600 secondary school students, revealed that 31.9 per cent of students aged 13 to 15 were overweight, and 14.4 per cent obese.

“These are frightening statistics because there is a higher propensity for the obese child to become an obese adult, with all the associated chronic diseases.” The standard Body Mass Index (BMI) for overweight is between 25 and 30 and for obesity between 30 and 40.

Dr. George said the School Meals Programme provided an excellent platform for introducing positive dietary habits and that physical education should be made compulsory at schools.

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Number of Caribbean children obese and overweight doubles in last decade – study

Davies: No decision on Goat Islands until completion of environmental study

News

Thursday, September 12, 2013

MINISTER of Transport, Works and Housing Dr Omar Davies says that the Government will not be making any decision on the development of Goat Islands until a study commissioned by the Port Authority of Jamaica on the environmental impact is completed and assessed.CHEC has indicated Goat Islands as its first choice for the proposed development of the trans-shipment port and economic zone under the Global Logistics Hub Initiative.Addressing yesterday’s Jamaica House press briefing at the Office of the Prime Minister in Kingston, Dr Davies said the proposed development would make Goat Islands the most significant project executed under the logistics hub.“Depending on… receipt of a formal proposal and a final decision, this would perhaps be the most significant initiative because you would have both a trans-shipment port as well as an economic zone,” the minister said.The proposed investment of approximately US$1.5 billion by China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) would represent a key development milestone for Jamaica and could have a significant positive impact on the country’s development agenda.The study is expected to be completed by the end of September.Through the Global Logistics Hub Initiative, the Government intends to take advantage of the anticipated increase in maritime activities from the expansion of the Panama Canal, scheduled to be completed in 2016.The aim is to create a range of special economic zones throughout Jamaica, including industrial parks, urban business districts, and technology parks. Multinational companies will be invited to set up operations to provide value-added activities geared towards the international community.Other key elements of the initiative include development of the Caymanas Economic Zone; dredging of the Kingston Harbour; establishing a dry dock facility at Jackson Bay, Clarendon; establishing a trans-shipment commodity port facility near Yallahs, St Thomas; and developing an air cargo and passenger facility at Vernamfield, in Clarendon.— JIS

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Davies: No decision on Goat Islands until completion of environmental study

Jacques Road youth overcomes adversity, moving on to study law

DESPITE being a slow learner while growing up in the depressed and often violence-ridden community of Jacques Road, which runs off Mountain View Avenue, 21-year-old Renee Atkinson has managed to beat the odds and will enter university to study law this semester.

The well-spoken young man is testimony that poverty is no excuse for lack of ambition, and despite all the negative distractions is sternly focussed on using education as a tool to lift himself out of poverty.“I stay inside most of the time so I never got involved,” Atkinson told the Jamaica Observer yesterday. “My grandmother keeps the family together and makes sure we don’t get into any wrongdoing. It wasn’t easy at times, but I knew what I had to do.”Atkinson attended St George’s College where he passed eight Caribbean Secondary Education Certificate subjects — Mathematics, English Literature, Religious Education, Principles of Accounts, and Information Technology at grade one level and English language, Principles of Business and History at grade two.Of note is the fact that he gained the highest possible grade in Mathematics while still a fourth former and was awarded twice by the Home School Association for being an outstanding student.He then matriculated to sixth form where he gained eight CAPE units with four distinctions and four credits.Now he is heading to the University of the West Indies, Mona Campus to pursue his dream of becoming an attorney.“I always wanted to be a lawyer. I am not sure if I will do criminal law or financial law, but I am sure that I want to become an attorney-at-law,” the modest young man said.But life was not all roses for Atkinson, who lives with his grandmother and not his parents.Although his schoolmates were from more affluent backgrounds, he was never intimidated by his economic circumstances.“Luckily my friends don’t stereotype, so I never felt too much pressure, and because I was doing well academically it took off some of the negatives,” he said.Living in the tough Jacques Road neighbourhood was not easy for the young man who oftentimes studied while gunshots rang out as community gang members fought each other or defended themselves from heavily armed thugs from neighbouring communities.Those street battles threw the Mountain View area into chaos for years before peace was brokered.“Sometimes when we hear the gunshots we have to just ignore them and keep studying,” Atkinson said. “It was scary, but because I hardly go outside it never really affected me that much.”Atkinson was one of 70 students from the East Kingston and Port Royal constituency who were presented with cheques to assist in their tuition by Government member of parliament Phillip Paulwell at the Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica auditorium yesterday.Although Jacques Road is situated in the neighbouring constituency of South East St Andrew, Atkinson was still singled out for assistance by Paulwell because of his academic achievement and economic situation.“He does not really live in the constituency (East Kingston and Port Royal), but we have to help all the young people we can because education is the vehicle of progress for our people,” Paulwell said.Atkinson has been getting assistance from Paulwell since his days at Rollington Town Primary School.“He was a slow learner, but we kept him back in the After-School Project and made sure he caught up. I am very proud of his achievement and know he will do well at the tertiary level,” Paulwell said.The After-School Project is part of Paulwell’s constituency educational drive for students at the primary level who are slow learners.Yesterday, Atkinson was also handed a cheque to assist with his university tuition by Paulwell, who doled out $5 million worth of awards to needy students. This is the 10th year the member of parliament has assisted students in his constituency.“I have not opened the envelope, but I am very grateful for the assistance,” the young man said, flashing a smile.

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FX study predicts 1.7% growth due to dollar slide

JAMAICA needs to boost exports to gain from a dollar projected to lose more than one-quarter of its value in 2013, says economist Dr Vanus James.

James made the observation while launching his report on the exchange rate on Wednesday. The study noted that depreciation of the projected amount, 28 per cent, would result in growth of some 1.79 per cent. That equates to the highest growth in years, but James indicated that it needs to be supported by real sector production.“The data is saying that you have to set an exchange rate that facilitates what you have to do on the real side,” he indicated in his address at the Edward Seaga Research Institute at the University of the West Indies.James, a University of Technology professor, is known for his landmark 2007 study on the size of the local copyright industry.“When you have a real exchange rate that is appreciating, that is going to bite you on the exports side. You have to be careful to allow some depreciation to discipline the market.”The 85-page technical report, entitled “Exchange Rate, Economic Structure and Economic Performance in Jamaica”, answered three main questions on the exchange rate, but always returned to the issue of production.“The story is right here,” he stated, pointing to a letter strewn within several stacks of equations on the effect of the dollar slide on the economy over decades. It was a symbol indicating the importance of production.“The problem you have here is on the real side. You have to solve that problem of how to industrialise,” he said.Currency depreciation cheapens exports and thereby increases the global competitiveness of products.But the report found that the real exchange rate actually “appreciated” at a rate of 1.5 per cent per annum since 2000 (presumably factoring in US inflation).Fast-forward to this current round of depreciation, the study found that the dollar nominally dipped seven per cent in 2012, with projections that it could dip by multiples by year-end.“The current path of depreciation will lead to about 28 per cent depreciation over 2013,” indicated the study, on page 76. However, importantly, the research found that the “net gain from a one per cent depreciation is growth of 0.064 per cent”, which would translate to 1.9 per cent growth.“Thus, while significant, both effects are highly inelastic and so very small compared to the effects of sound monetary policy and the industrialisation of the economy based on rising exports of output, especially from the domestic capital sector,” he continued on page 76.The currency surpassed the symbolic $100 to US$1 earlier this year, following a rapid double-digit depreciation over 12 months.The study was commissioned by the Edward Seaga Research Institute and sponsored by a grant from PanJamaica Investment Trust and Jamaica National Building Society, and the ICWI Group Foundation.The report, according to its author, examines the relationship between the exchange rate regime and economic performance such as inflation, restructuring and growth in Jamaica. It considers whether there is a performance cost of varying rather than fixing the exchange rate and seeks estimates of the cost. The report also seeks to determine an optimal exchange rate regime for Jamaica — whether a floating rate or a fixed rate. It also finds that instead of a crawling peg, the economic dynamics favour a fairly strict-managed float, complemented by solution of the real-sector problems of high energy and other import costs and structural change.

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FX study predicts 1.7% growth due to dollar slide